Daily Papers

Label smoothing (LS) is a popular regularisation method for training deep neural network classifiers due to its effectiveness in improving test accuracy and its simplicity in implementation. "Hard" one-hot labels are "smoothed" by uniformly distributing probability mass to other classes, reducing overfitting. In this work, we reveal that LS negatively affects selective classification (SC) - where the aim is to reject misclassifications using a model's predictive uncertainty. We first demonstrate empirically across a range of tasks and architectures that LS leads to a consistent degradation in SC. We then explain this by analysing logit-level gradients, showing that LS exacerbates overconfidence and underconfidence by regularising the max logit more when the probability of error is low, and less when the probability of error is high. This elucidates previously reported experimental results where strong classifiers underperform in SC. We then demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of logit normalisation for recovering lost SC performance caused by LS. Furthermore, based on our gradient analysis, we explain why such normalisation is effective. We will release our code shortly.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

In this technical report, we introduce the training methodologies implemented in the development of Skywork-MoE, a high-performance mixture-of-experts (MoE) large language model (LLM) with 146 billion parameters and 16 experts. It is initialized from the pre-existing dense checkpoints of our Skywork-13B model. We explore the comparative effectiveness of upcycling versus training from scratch initializations. Our findings suggest that the choice between these two approaches should consider both the performance of the existing dense checkpoints and the MoE training budget. We highlight two innovative techniques: gating logit normalization, which improves expert diversification, and adaptive auxiliary loss coefficients, allowing for layer-specific adjustment of auxiliary loss coefficients. Our experimental results validate the effectiveness of these methods. Leveraging these techniques and insights, we trained our upcycled Skywork-MoE on a condensed subset of our SkyPile corpus. The evaluation results demonstrate that our model delivers strong performance across a wide range of benchmarks.

Layer-wise normalization (LN) is an essential component of virtually all transformer-based large language models. While its effects on training stability are well documented, its role at inference time is poorly understood. Additionally, LN layers hinder mechanistic interpretability by introducing additional nonlinearities and increasing the interconnectedness of individual model components. Here, we show that all LN layers can be removed from every GPT-2 model with only a small increase in validation loss (e.g. +0.03 cross-entropy loss for GPT-2 XL). Thus, LN cannot play a substantial role in language modeling. We find that the amount of fine-tuning data needed for LN removal grows sublinearly with model parameters, suggesting scaling to larger models is feasible. We release a suite of LN-free GPT-2 models on Hugging Face. Furthermore, we test interpretability techniques on LN-free models. Direct logit attribution now gives the exact direct effect of individual components, while the accuracy of attribution patching does not significantly improve. We also confirm that GPT-2's "confidence neurons" are inactive in the LN-free models. Our work clarifies the role of LN layers in language modeling, showing that GPT-2-class models can function without LN layers. We hope that our LN-free analogs of the GPT-2 family of models will enable more precise interpretability research and improve our understanding of language models.

Over-parameterized deep networks trained using gradient-based optimizers are a popular choice for solving classification and ranking problems. Without appropriately tuned ell_2 regularization or weight decay, such networks have the tendency to make output scores (logits) and network weights large, causing training loss to become too small and the network to lose its adaptivity (ability to move around) in the parameter space. Although regularization is typically understood from an overfitting perspective, we highlight its role in making the network more adaptive and enabling it to escape more easily from weights that generalize poorly. To provide such a capability, we propose a method called Logit Attenuating Weight Normalization (LAWN), that can be stacked onto any gradient-based optimizer. LAWN controls the logits by constraining the weight norms of layers in the final homogeneous sub-network. Empirically, we show that the resulting LAWN variant of the optimizer makes a deep network more adaptive to finding minimas with superior generalization performance on large-scale image classification and recommender systems. While LAWN is particularly impressive in improving Adam, it greatly improves all optimizers when used with large batch sizes

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

In knowledge distillation literature, feature-based methods have dominated due to their ability to effectively tap into extensive teacher models. In contrast, logit-based approaches, which aim to distill `dark knowledge' from teachers, typically exhibit inferior performance compared to feature-based methods. To bridge this gap, we present LumiNet, a novel knowledge distillation algorithm designed to enhance logit-based distillation. We introduce the concept of 'perception', aiming to calibrate logits based on the model's representation capability. This concept addresses overconfidence issues in logit-based distillation method while also introducing a novel method to distill knowledge from the teacher. It reconstructs the logits of a sample/instances by considering relationships with other samples in the batch. LumiNet excels on benchmarks like CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and MSCOCO, outperforming leading feature-based methods, e.g., compared to KD with ResNet18 and MobileNetV2 on ImageNet, it shows improvements of 1.5% and 2.05%, respectively.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Most of the existing Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection algorithms depend on single input source: the feature, the logit, or the softmax probability. However, the immense diversity of the OOD examples makes such methods fragile. There are OOD samples that are easy to identify in the feature space while hard to distinguish in the logit space and vice versa. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel OOD scoring method named Virtual-logit Matching (ViM), which combines the class-agnostic score from feature space and the In-Distribution (ID) class-dependent logits. Specifically, an additional logit representing the virtual OOD class is generated from the residual of the feature against the principal space, and then matched with the original logits by a constant scaling. The probability of this virtual logit after softmax is the indicator of OOD-ness. To facilitate the evaluation of large-scale OOD detection in academia, we create a new OOD dataset for ImageNet-1K, which is human-annotated and is 8.8x the size of existing datasets. We conducted extensive experiments, including CNNs and vision transformers, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ViM score. In particular, using the BiT-S model, our method gets an average AUROC 90.91% on four difficult OOD benchmarks, which is 4% ahead of the best baseline. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/haoqiwang/vim.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold immense potential to generate synthetic data of high quality and utility, which has numerous applications from downstream model training to practical data utilisation. However, contemporary models, despite their impressive capacities, consistently struggle to produce both coherent and diverse data. To address the coherency issue, we introduce contrastive expert guidance, where the difference between the logit distributions of fine-tuned and base language models is emphasised to ensure domain adherence. In order to ensure diversity, we utilise existing real and synthetic examples as negative prompts to the model. We deem this dual-pronged approach to logit reshaping as STEER: Semantic Text Enhancement via Embedding Repositioning. STEER operates at inference-time and systematically guides the LLMs to strike a balance between adherence to the data distribution (ensuring semantic fidelity) and deviation from prior synthetic examples or existing real datasets (ensuring diversity and authenticity). This delicate balancing act is achieved by dynamically moving towards or away from chosen representations in the latent space. STEER demonstrates improved performance over previous synthetic data generation techniques, exhibiting better balance between data diversity and coherency across three distinct tasks: hypothesis generation, toxic and non-toxic comment generation, and commonsense reasoning task generation. We demonstrate how STEER allows for fine-tuned control over the diversity-coherency trade-off via its hyperparameters, highlighting its versatility.

Traditional knowledge distillation focuses on aligning the student's predicted probabilities with both ground-truth labels and the teacher's predicted probabilities. However, the transition to predicted probabilities from logits would obscure certain indispensable information. To address this issue, it is intuitive to additionally introduce a logit-level loss function as a supplement to the widely used probability-level loss function, for exploiting the latent information of logits. Unfortunately, we empirically find that the amalgamation of the newly introduced logit-level loss and the previous probability-level loss will lead to performance degeneration, even trailing behind the performance of employing either loss in isolation. We attribute this phenomenon to the collapse of the classification head, which is verified by our theoretical analysis based on the neural collapse theory. Specifically, the gradients of the two loss functions exhibit contradictions in the linear classifier yet display no such conflict within the backbone. Drawing from the theoretical analysis, we propose a novel method called dual-head knowledge distillation, which partitions the linear classifier into two classification heads responsible for different losses, thereby preserving the beneficial effects of both losses on the backbone while eliminating adverse influences on the classification head. Extensive experiments validate that our method can effectively exploit the information inside the logits and achieve superior performance against state-of-the-art counterparts.

The use of deep neural networks in real-world applications require well-calibrated networks with confidence scores that accurately reflect the actual probability. However, it has been found that these networks often provide over-confident predictions, which leads to poor calibration. Recent efforts have sought to address this issue by focal loss to reduce over-confidence, but this approach can also lead to under-confident predictions. While different variants of focal loss have been explored, it is difficult to find a balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. In our work, we propose a new loss function by focusing on dual logits. Our method not only considers the ground truth logit, but also take into account the highest logit ranked after the ground truth logit. By maximizing the gap between these two logits, our proposed dual focal loss can achieve a better balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. We provide theoretical evidence to support our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through evaluations on multiple models and datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://github.com/Linwei94/DualFocalLoss

Knowledge Distillation (KD) uses the teacher's prediction logits as soft labels to guide the student, while self-KD does not need a real teacher to require the soft labels. This work unifies the formulations of the two tasks by decomposing and reorganizing the generic KD loss into a Normalized KD (NKD) loss and customized soft labels for both target class (image's category) and non-target classes named Universal Self-Knowledge Distillation (USKD). We decompose the KD loss and find the non-target loss from it forces the student's non-target logits to match the teacher's, but the sum of the two non-target logits is different, preventing them from being identical. NKD normalizes the non-target logits to equalize their sum. It can be generally used for KD and self-KD to better use the soft labels for distillation loss. USKD generates customized soft labels for both target and non-target classes without a teacher. It smooths the target logit of the student as the soft target label and uses the rank of the intermediate feature to generate the soft non-target labels with Zipf's law. For KD with teachers, our NKD achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets, boosting the ImageNet Top-1 accuracy of ResNet18 from 69.90% to 71.96% with a ResNet-34 teacher. For self-KD without teachers, USKD is the first self-KD method that can be effectively applied to both CNN and ViT models with negligible additional time and memory cost, resulting in new state-of-the-art results, such as 1.17% and 0.55% accuracy gains on ImageNet for MobileNet and DeiT-Tiny, respectively. Our codes are available at https://github.com/yzd-v/cls_KD.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

We characterize the statistical efficiency of knowledge transfer through n samples from a teacher to a probabilistic student classifier with input space mathcal S over labels mathcal A. We show that privileged information at three progressive levels accelerates the transfer. At the first level, only samples with hard labels are known, via which the maximum likelihood estimator attains the minimax rate {|{mathcal S||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. The second level has the teacher probabilities of sampled labels available in addition, which turns out to boost the convergence rate lower bound to {{|{mathcal S}||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. However, under this second data acquisition protocol, minimizing a naive adaptation of the cross-entropy loss results in an asymptotically biased student. We overcome this limitation and achieve the fundamental limit by using a novel empirical variant of the squared error logit loss. The third level further equips the student with the soft labels (complete logits) on {mathcal A} given every sampled input, thereby provably enables the student to enjoy a rate {|{mathcal S}|}/{n} free of |{mathcal A}|. We find any Kullback-Leibler divergence minimizer to be optimal in the last case. Numerical simulations distinguish the four learners and corroborate our theory.

We present the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD), a new reading comprehension dataset consisting of 100,000+ questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to each question is a segment of text from the corresponding reading passage. We analyze the dataset to understand the types of reasoning required to answer the questions, leaning heavily on dependency and constituency trees. We build a strong logistic regression model, which achieves an F1 score of 51.0%, a significant improvement over a simple baseline (20%). However, human performance (86.8%) is much higher, indicating that the dataset presents a good challenge problem for future research. The dataset is freely available at https://stanford-qa.com

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

Recently, pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown great potential in few-shot learning and attracted a lot of research interest. Although efforts have been made to improve few-shot ability of CLIP, key factors on the effectiveness of existing methods have not been well studied, limiting further exploration of CLIP's potential in few-shot learning. In this paper, we first introduce a unified formulation to analyze CLIP-based few-shot learning methods from a perspective of logit bias, which encourages us to learn an effective logit bias for further improving performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning methods. To this end, we disassemble three key components involved in computation of logit bias (i.e., logit features, logit predictor, and logit fusion) and empirically analyze the effect on performance of few-shot classification. Based on analysis of key components, this paper proposes a novel AMU-Tuning method to learn effective logit bias for CLIP-based few-shot classification. Specifically, our AMU-Tuning predicts logit bias by exploiting the appropriate textbf{A}uxiliary features, which are fed into an efficient feature-initialized linear classifier with textbf{M}ulti-branch training. Finally, an textbf{U}ncertainty-based fusion is developed to incorporate logit bias into CLIP for few-shot classification. The experiments are conducted on several widely used benchmarks, and the results show AMU-Tuning clearly outperforms its counterparts while achieving state-of-the-art performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning without bells and whistles.

Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.

This paper proposes a new loss function for adversarial training. Since adversarial training has difficulties, e.g., necessity of high model capacity, focusing on important data points by weighting cross-entropy loss has attracted much attention. However, they are vulnerable to sophisticated attacks, e.g., Auto-Attack. This paper experimentally reveals that the cause of their vulnerability is their small margins between logits for the true label and the other labels. Since neural networks classify the data points based on the logits, logit margins should be large enough to avoid flipping the largest logit by the attacks. Importance-aware methods do not increase logit margins of important samples but decrease those of less-important samples compared with cross-entropy loss. To increase logit margins of important samples, we propose switching one-vs-the-rest loss (SOVR), which switches from cross-entropy to one-vs-the-rest loss for important samples that have small logit margins. We prove that one-vs-the-rest loss increases logit margins two times larger than the weighted cross-entropy loss for a simple problem. We experimentally confirm that SOVR increases logit margins of important samples unlike existing methods and achieves better robustness against Auto-Attack than importance-aware methods.

Various visual foundation models have distinct strengths and weaknesses, both of which can be improved through heterogeneous multi-teacher knowledge distillation without labels, termed "agglomerative models." We build upon this body of work by studying the effect of the teachers' activation statistics, particularly the impact of the loss function on the resulting student model quality. We explore a standard toolkit of statistical normalization techniques to better align the different distributions and assess their effects. Further, we examine the impact on downstream teacher-matching metrics, which motivates the use of Hadamard matrices. With these matrices, we demonstrate useful properties, showing how they can be used for isotropic standardization, where each dimension of a multivariate distribution is standardized using the same scale. We call this technique "PHI Standardization" (PHI-S) and empirically demonstrate that it produces the best student model across the suite of methods studied.

Various XAI attribution methods have been recently proposed for the transformer architecture, allowing for insights into the decision-making process of large language models by assigning importance scores to input tokens and intermediate representations. One class of methods that seems very promising in this direction includes decomposition-based approaches, i.e., XAI-methods that redistribute the model's prediction logit through the network, as this value is directly related to the prediction. In the previous literature we note though that two prominent methods of this category, namely ALTI-Logit and LRP, have not yet been analyzed in juxtaposition and hence we propose to close this gap by conducting a careful quantitative evaluation w.r.t. ground truth annotations on a subject-verb agreement task, as well as various qualitative inspections, using BERT, GPT-2 and LLaMA-3 as a testbed. Along the way we compare and extend the ALTI-Logit and LRP methods, including the recently proposed AttnLRP variant, from an algorithmic and implementation perspective. We further incorporate in our benchmark two widely-used gradient-based attribution techniques. Finally, we make our carefullly constructed benchmark dataset for evaluating attributions on language models, as well as our code, publicly available in order to foster evaluation of XAI-methods on a well-defined common ground.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

This paper proposes a simple method for controllable text generation based on weighting logits with a free-form classifier, namely CAIF sampling. Using an arbitrary text classifier, we adjust a small part of a language model's logits and guide text generation towards or away from classifier prediction. We experimented with toxicity avoidance and sentiment control tasks and showed that the proposed method significantly outperforms recent PPLM, GeDi, and DExperts on PPL and task accuracy metrics based on the external classifier of generated texts. In addition, compared to other approaches, it is easier to implement and tune and has significantly fewer restrictions and requirements.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

As a technique to bridge logit matching and probability distribution matching, temperature scaling plays a pivotal role in knowledge distillation (KD). Conventionally, temperature scaling is applied to both teacher's logits and student's logits in KD. Motivated by some recent works, in this paper, we drop instead temperature scaling on the student side, and systematically study the resulting variant of KD, dubbed transformed teacher matching (TTM). By reinterpreting temperature scaling as a power transform of probability distribution, we show that in comparison with the original KD, TTM has an inherent R\'enyi entropy term in its objective function, which serves as an extra regularization term. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that thanks to this inherent regularization, TTM leads to trained students with better generalization than the original KD. To further enhance student's capability to match teacher's power transformed probability distribution, we introduce a sample-adaptive weighting coefficient into TTM, yielding a novel distillation approach dubbed weighted TTM (WTTM). It is shown, by comprehensive experiments, that although WTTM is simple, it is effective, improves upon TTM, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zkxufo/TTM.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

We consider an extension to the classic position auctions in which sponsored creatives can be added within AI generated content rather than shown in predefined slots. New challenges arise from the natural requirement that sponsored creatives should smoothly fit into the context. With the help of advanced LLM technologies, it becomes viable to accurately estimate the benefits of adding each individual sponsored creatives into each potential positions within the AI generated content by properly taking the context into account. Therefore, we assume one click-through rate estimation for each position-creative pair, rather than one uniform estimation for each sponsored creative across all positions in classic settings. As a result, the underlying optimization becomes a general matching problem, thus the substitution effects should be treated more carefully compared to standard position auction settings, where the slots are independent with each other. In this work, we formalize a concrete mathematical model of the extended position auction problem and study the welfare-maximization and revenue-maximization mechanism design problem. Formally, we consider two different user behavior models and solve the mechanism design problems therein respectively. For the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, which is order-insensitive, we can efficiently implement the optimal mechanisms. For the cascade model, which is order-sensitive, we provide approximately optimal solutions.

In the presence of noisy labels, designing robust loss functions is critical for securing the generalization performance of deep neural networks. Cross Entropy (CE) loss has been shown to be not robust to noisy labels due to its unboundedness. To alleviate this issue, existing works typically design specialized robust losses with the symmetric condition, which usually lead to the underfitting issue. In this paper, our key idea is to induce a loss bound at the logit level, thus universally enhancing the noise robustness of existing losses. Specifically, we propose logit clipping (LogitClip), which clamps the norm of the logit vector to ensure that it is upper bounded by a constant. In this manner, CE loss equipped with our LogitClip method is effectively bounded, mitigating the overfitting to examples with noisy labels. Moreover, we present theoretical analyses to certify the noise-tolerant ability of LogitClip. Extensive experiments show that LogitClip not only significantly improves the noise robustness of CE loss, but also broadly enhances the generalization performance of popular robust losses.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Recent studies, including DeepSeek-R1 and Kimi-k1.5, have demonstrated that reinforcement learning with rule-based, binary-valued reward functions can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models. These models primarily utilize REINFORCE-based policy optimization techniques, such as REINFORCE with baseline and group relative policy optimization (GRPO). However, a key limitation remains: current policy optimization methods either neglect reward normalization or employ static normalization strategies, which fail to adapt to the dynamic nature of policy updates during training. This may result in unstable gradient estimates and hinder training stability. To address this issue, we propose Beta Normalization Policy Optimization (BNPO), a novel policy optimization method that adaptively normalizes rewards using a Beta distribution with dynamically updated parameters. BNPO aligns the normalization with the changing policy distribution, enabling more precise and lower-variance gradient estimation, which in turn promotes stable training dynamics. We provide theoretical analysis demonstrating BNPO's variance-reducing properties and show that it generalizes both REINFORCE and GRPO under binary-valued reward settings. Furthermore, we introduce an advantage decomposition mechanism to extend BNPO's applicability to more complex reward systems. Experimental results confirm that BNPO achieves state-of-the-art performance among policy optimization methods on reasoning tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/BNPO.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Several recent studies have elucidated why knowledge distillation (KD) improves model performance. However, few have researched the other advantages of KD in addition to its improving model performance. In this study, we have attempted to show that KD enhances the interpretability as well as the accuracy of models. We measured the number of concept detectors identified in network dissection for a quantitative comparison of model interpretability. We attributed the improvement in interpretability to the class-similarity information transferred from the teacher to student models. First, we confirmed the transfer of class-similarity information from the teacher to student model via logit distillation. Then, we analyzed how class-similarity information affects model interpretability in terms of its presence or absence and degree of similarity information. We conducted various quantitative and qualitative experiments and examined the results on different datasets, different KD methods, and according to different measures of interpretability. Our research showed that KD models by large models could be used more reliably in various fields.

We present DaLAJ 1.0, a Dataset for Linguistic Acceptability Judgments for Swedish, comprising 9 596 sentences in its first version; and the initial experiment using it for the binary classification task. DaLAJ is based on the SweLL second language learner data, consisting of essays at different levels of proficiency. To make sure the dataset can be freely available despite the GDPR regulations, we have sentence-scrambled learner essays and removed part of the metadata about learners, keeping for each sentence only information about the mother tongue and the level of the course where the essay has been written. We use the normalized version of learner language as the basis for the DaLAJ sentences, and keep only one error per sentence. We repeat the same sentence for each individual correction tag used in the sentence. For DaLAJ 1.0 we have used four error categories (out of 35 available in SweLL), all connected to lexical or word-building choices. Our baseline results for the binary classification show an accuracy of 58% for DaLAJ 1.0 using BERT embeddings. The dataset is included in the SwedishGlue (Swe. SuperLim) benchmark. Below, we describe the format of the dataset, first experiments, our insights and the motivation for the chosen approach to data sharing.

The paper focuses on deep learning semantic search algorithms applied in the HR domain. The aim of the article is developing a novel approach to training a Siamese network to link the skills mentioned in the job ad with the title. It has been shown that the title normalization process can be based either on classification or similarity comparison approaches. While classification algorithms strive to classify a sample into predefined set of categories, similarity search algorithms take a more flexible approach, since they are designed to find samples that are similar to a given query sample, without requiring pre-defined classes and labels. In this article semantic similarity search to find candidates for title normalization has been used. A pre-trained language model has been adapted while teaching it to match titles and skills based on co-occurrence information. For the purpose of this research fifty billion title-descriptions pairs had been collected for training the model and thirty three thousand title-description-normalized title triplets, where normalized job title was picked up manually by job ad creator for testing purposes. As baselines FastText, BERT, SentenceBert and JobBert have been used. As a metric of the accuracy of the designed algorithm is Recall in top one, five and ten model's suggestions. It has been shown that the novel training objective lets it achieve significant improvement in comparison to other generic and specific text encoders. Two settings with treating titles as standalone strings, and with included skills as additional features during inference have been used and the results have been compared in this article. Improvements by 10% and 21.5% have been achieved using VacancySBERT and VacancySBERT (with skills) respectively. The benchmark has been developed as open-source to foster further research in the area.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

The standard normalization method for neural network (NN) models used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) is layer normalization (LN). This is different than batch normalization (BN), which is widely-adopted in Computer Vision. The preferred use of LN in NLP is principally due to the empirical observation that a (naive/vanilla) use of BN leads to significant performance degradation for NLP tasks; however, a thorough understanding of the underlying reasons for this is not always evident. In this paper, we perform a systematic study of NLP transformer models to understand why BN has a poor performance, as compared to LN. We find that the statistics of NLP data across the batch dimension exhibit large fluctuations throughout training. This results in instability, if BN is naively implemented. To address this, we propose Power Normalization (PN), a novel normalization scheme that resolves this issue by (i) relaxing zero-mean normalization in BN, (ii) incorporating a running quadratic mean instead of per batch statistics to stabilize fluctuations, and (iii) using an approximate backpropagation for incorporating the running statistics in the forward pass. We show theoretically, under mild assumptions, that PN leads to a smaller Lipschitz constant for the loss, compared with BN. Furthermore, we prove that the approximate backpropagation scheme leads to bounded gradients. We extensively test PN for transformers on a range of NLP tasks, and we show that it significantly outperforms both LN and BN. In particular, PN outperforms LN by 0.4/0.6 BLEU on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 5.6/3.0 PPL on PTB/WikiText-103. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/sIncerass/powernorm.

Online continual learning aims to continuously train neural networks from a continuous data stream with a single pass-through data. As the most effective approach, the rehearsal-based methods replay part of previous data. Commonly used predictors in existing methods tend to generate biased dot-product logits that prefer to the classes of current data, which is known as a bias issue and a phenomenon of forgetting. Many approaches have been proposed to overcome the forgetting problem by correcting the bias; however, they still need to be improved in online fashion. In this paper, we try to address the bias issue by a more straightforward and more efficient method. By decomposing the dot-product logits into an angle factor and a norm factor, we empirically find that the bias problem mainly occurs in the angle factor, which can be used to learn novel knowledge as cosine logits. On the contrary, the norm factor abandoned by existing methods helps remember historical knowledge. Based on this observation, we intuitively propose to leverage the norm factor to balance the new and old knowledge for addressing the bias. To this end, we develop a heuristic approach called unbias experience replay (UER). UER learns current samples only by the angle factor and further replays previous samples by both the norm and angle factors. Extensive experiments on three datasets show that UER achieves superior performance over various state-of-the-art methods. The code is in https://github.com/FelixHuiweiLin/UER.

When large language models (LMs) are applied in zero- or few-shot settings to discriminative tasks such as multiple-choice questions, their attentiveness (i.e., probability mass) is spread across many vocabulary tokens that are not valid choices. Such a spread across multiple surface forms with identical meaning is thought to cause an underestimation of a model's true performance, referred to as the "surface form competition" (SFC) hypothesis. This has motivated the introduction of various probability normalization methods. However, many core questions remain unanswered. How do we measure SFC or attentiveness? Are there direct ways of increasing attentiveness on valid choices? Does increasing attentiveness always improve task accuracy? We propose a mathematical formalism for studying this phenomenon, provide a metric for quantifying attentiveness, and identify a simple method for increasing it -- namely, in-context learning with even just one example containing answer choices. The formalism allows us to quantify SFC and bound its impact. Our experiments on three diverse datasets and six LMs reveal several surprising findings. For example, encouraging models to generate a valid answer choice can, in fact, be detrimental to task performance for some LMs, and prior probability normalization methods are less effective (sometimes even detrimental) to instruction-tuned LMs. We conclude with practical insights for effectively using prompted LMs for multiple-choice tasks.

This research paper investigates the effectiveness of simple linear models versus complex machine learning techniques in breast cancer diagnosis, emphasizing the importance of interpretability and computational efficiency in the medical domain. We focus on Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) and optimize their performance using the UCI Machine Learning Repository dataset. Our findings demonstrate that the simpler linear model, LR, outperforms the more complex DT and SVM techniques, with a test score mean of 97.28%, a standard deviation of 1.62%, and a computation time of 35.56 ms. In comparison, DT achieved a test score mean of 93.73%, and SVM had a test score mean of 96.44%. The superior performance of LR can be attributed to its simplicity and interpretability, which provide a clear understanding of the relationship between input features and the outcome. This is particularly valuable in the medical domain, where interpretability is crucial for decision-making. Moreover, the computational efficiency of LR offers advantages in terms of scalability and real-world applicability. The results of this study highlight the power of simplicity in the context of breast cancer diagnosis and suggest that simpler linear models like LR can be more effective, interpretable, and computationally efficient than their complex counterparts, making them a more suitable choice for medical applications.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

This paper extends the classic theory of convex optimization to the minimization of functions that are equal to the negated logarithm of what we term as a sum-log-concave function, i.e., a sum of log-concave functions. In particular, we show that such functions are in general not convex but still satisfy generalized convexity inequalities. These inequalities unveil the key importance of a certain vector that we call the cross-gradient and that is, in general, distinct from the usual gradient. Thus, we propose the Cross Gradient Descent (XGD) algorithm moving in the opposite direction of the cross-gradient and derive a convergence analysis. As an application of our sum-log-concave framework, we introduce the so-called checkered regression method relying on a sum-log-concave function. This classifier extends (multiclass) logistic regression to non-linearly separable problems since it is capable of tessellating the feature space by using any given number of hyperplanes, creating a checkerboard-like pattern of decision regions.

We present a method to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) and traditional tabular data classification techniques, addressing LLMs challenges like data serialization sensitivity and biases. We introduce two strategies utilizing LLMs for ranking categorical variables and generating priors on correlations between continuous variables and targets, enhancing performance in few-shot scenarios. We focus on Logistic Regression, introducing MonotonicLR that employs a non-linear monotonic function for mapping ordinals to cardinals while preserving LLM-determined orders. Validation against baseline models reveals the superior performance of our approach, especially in low-data scenarios, while remaining interpretable.

In online job marketplaces, it is important to establish a well-defined job title taxonomy for various downstream tasks (e.g., job recommendation, users' career analysis, and turnover prediction). Job Title Normalization (JTN) is such a cleaning step to classify user-created non-standard job titles into normalized ones. However, solving the JTN problem is non-trivial with challenges: (1) semantic similarity of different job titles, (2) non-normalized user-created job titles, and (3) large-scale and long-tailed job titles in real-world applications. To this end, we propose a novel solution, named JAMES, that constructs three unique embeddings (i.e., graph, contextual, and syntactic) of a target job title to effectively capture its various traits. We further propose a multi-aspect co-attention mechanism to attentively combine these embeddings, and employ neural logical reasoning representations to collaboratively estimate similarities between messy job titles and normalized job titles in a reasoning space. To evaluate JAMES, we conduct comprehensive experiments against ten competing models on a large-scale real-world dataset with over 350,000 job titles. Our experimental results show that JAMES significantly outperforms the best baseline by 10.06% in Precision@10 and by 17.52% in NDCG@10, respectively.

We investigate how large language models perform latent multi-hop reasoning in prompts like "Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart's mother's spouse is". To analyze this process, we introduce logit flow, an interpretability method that traces how logits propagate across layers and positions toward the final prediction. Using logit flow, we identify four distinct stages in single-hop knowledge prediction: (A) entity subject enrichment, (B) entity attribute extraction, (C) relation subject enrichment, and (D) relation attribute extraction. Extending this analysis to multi-hop reasoning, we find that failures often stem from the relation attribute extraction stage, where conflicting logits reduce prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose back attention, a novel mechanism that enables lower layers to leverage higher-layer hidden states from different positions during attention computation. With back attention, a 1-layer transformer achieves the performance of a 2-layer transformer. Applied to four LLMs, back attention improves accuracy on five reasoning datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing latent multi-hop reasoning ability.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Batch Normalization is a commonly used trick to improve the training of deep neural networks. These neural networks use L2 regularization, also called weight decay, ostensibly to prevent overfitting. However, we show that L2 regularization has no regularizing effect when combined with normalization. Instead, regularization has an influence on the scale of weights, and thereby on the effective learning rate. We investigate this dependence, both in theory, and experimentally. We show that popular optimization methods such as ADAM only partially eliminate the influence of normalization on the learning rate. This leads to a discussion on other ways to mitigate this issue.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

In legal decisions, split votes (SV) occur when judges cannot reach a unanimous decision, posing a difficulty for lawyers who must navigate diverse legal arguments and opinions. In high-stakes domains, understanding the alignment of perceived difficulty between humans and AI systems is crucial to build trust. However, existing NLP calibration methods focus on a classifier's awareness of predictive performance, measured against the human majority class, overlooking inherent human label variation (HLV). This paper explores split votes as naturally observable human disagreement and value pluralism. We collect judges' vote distributions from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and present SV-ECHR, a case outcome classification (COC) dataset with SV information. We build a taxonomy of disagreement with SV-specific subcategories. We further assess the alignment of perceived difficulty between models and humans, as well as confidence- and human-calibration of COC models. We observe limited alignment with the judge vote distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic exploration of calibration to human judgements in legal NLP. Our study underscores the necessity for further research on measuring and enhancing model calibration considering HLV in legal decision tasks.

In this paper, we introduce the task of targeted aspect-based sentiment analysis. The goal is to extract fine-grained information with respect to entities mentioned in user comments. This work extends both aspect-based sentiment analysis that assumes a single entity per document and targeted sentiment analysis that assumes a single sentiment towards a target entity. In particular, we identify the sentiment towards each aspect of one or more entities. As a testbed for this task, we introduce the SentiHood dataset, extracted from a question answering (QA) platform where urban neighbourhoods are discussed by users. In this context units of text often mention several aspects of one or more neighbourhoods. This is the first time that a generic social media platform in this case a QA platform, is used for fine-grained opinion mining. Text coming from QA platforms is far less constrained compared to text from review specific platforms which current datasets are based on. We develop several strong baselines, relying on logistic regression and state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks.

We formalize and study a phenomenon called feature collapse that makes precise the intuitive idea that entities playing a similar role in a learning task receive similar representations. As feature collapse requires a notion of task, we leverage a simple but prototypical NLP task to study it. We start by showing experimentally that feature collapse goes hand in hand with generalization. We then prove that, in the large sample limit, distinct words that play identical roles in this NLP task receive identical local feature representations in a neural network. This analysis reveals the crucial role that normalization mechanisms, such as LayerNorm, play in feature collapse and in generalization.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) for low-resource languages presents significant challenges, particularly due to the scarcity of high-quality annotated data and linguistic resources. The choice of embeddings plays a critical role in enhancing the performance of NLP tasks, such as news classification, sentiment analysis, and hate speech detection, especially for low-resource languages like Marathi. In this study, we investigate the impact of various embedding techniques- Contextual BERT-based, Non-Contextual BERT-based, and FastText-based on NLP classification tasks specific to the Marathi language. Our research includes a thorough evaluation of both compressed and uncompressed embeddings, providing a comprehensive overview of how these embeddings perform across different scenarios. Specifically, we compare two BERT model embeddings, Muril and MahaBERT, as well as two FastText model embeddings, IndicFT and MahaFT. Our evaluation includes applying embeddings to a Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) classifier for task performance assessment, as well as TSNE visualizations to observe the spatial distribution of these embeddings. The results demonstrate that contextual embeddings outperform non-contextual embeddings. Furthermore, BERT-based non-contextual embeddings extracted from the first BERT embedding layer yield better results than FastText-based embeddings, suggesting a potential alternative to FastText embeddings.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

We consider a binary classification problem under group fairness constraints, which can be one of Demographic Parity (DP), Equalized Opportunity (EOp), or Equalized Odds (EO). We propose an explicit characterization of Bayes optimal classifier under the fairness constraints, which turns out to be a simple modification rule of the unconstrained classifier. Namely, we introduce a novel instance-level measure of bias, which we call bias score, and the modification rule is a simple linear rule on top of the finite amount of bias scores.Based on this characterization, we develop a post-hoc approach that allows us to adapt to fairness constraints while maintaining high accuracy. In the case of DP and EOp constraints, the modification rule is thresholding a single bias score, while in the case of EO constraints we are required to fit a linear modification rule with 2 parameters. The method can also be applied for composite group-fairness criteria, such as ones involving several sensitive attributes.

Text Normalization is an integral part of any text-to-speech synthesis system. In a natural language text, there are elements such as numbers, dates, abbreviations, etc. that belong to other semiotic classes. They are called non-standard words (NSW) and need to be expanded into ordinary words. For this purpose, it is necessary to identify the semiotic class of each NSW. The taxonomy of semiotic classes adapted to the Lithuanian language is presented in the work. Sets of rules are created for detecting and expanding NSWs based on regular expressions. Experiments with three completely different data sets were performed and the accuracy was assessed. Causes of errors are explained and recommendations are given for the development of text normalization rules.

Happiness computing based on large-scale online web data and machine learning methods is an emerging research topic that underpins a range of issues, from personal growth to social stability. Many advanced Machine Learning (ML) models with explanations are used to compute the happiness online assessment while maintaining high accuracy of results. However, domain knowledge constraints, such as the primary and secondary relations of happiness factors, are absent from these models, which limits the association between computing results and the right reasons for why they occurred. This article attempts to provide new insights into the explanation consistency from an empirical study perspective. Then we study how to represent and introduce domain knowledge constraints to make ML models more trustworthy. We achieve this through: (1) proving that multiple prediction models with additive factor attributions will have the desirable property of primary and secondary relations consistency, and (2) showing that factor relations with quantity can be represented as an importance distribution for encoding domain knowledge. Factor explanation difference is penalized by the Kullback-Leibler divergence-based loss among computing models. Experimental results using two online web datasets show that domain knowledge of stable factor relations exists. Using this knowledge not only improves happiness computing accuracy but also reveals more significative happiness factors for assisting decisions well.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

The Large Language Model Bias Index (LLMBI) is a pioneering approach designed to quantify and address biases inherent in large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4. We recognise the increasing prevalence and impact of LLMs across diverse sectors. This research introduces a novel metric, LLMBI, to systematically measure and mitigate biases potentially skewing model responses. We formulated LLMBI using a composite scoring system incorporating multiple dimensions of bias, including but not limited to age, gender, and racial biases. To operationalise this metric, we engaged in a multi-step process involving collecting and annotating LLM responses, applying sophisticated Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques for bias detection, and computing the LLMBI score through a specially crafted mathematical formula. The formula integrates weighted averages of various bias dimensions, a penalty for dataset diversity deficiencies, and a correction for sentiment biases. Our empirical analysis, conducted using responses from OpenAI's API, employs advanced sentiment analysis as a representative method for bias detection. The research reveals LLMs, whilst demonstrating impressive capabilities in text generation, exhibit varying degrees of bias across different dimensions. LLMBI provides a quantifiable measure to compare biases across models and over time, offering a vital tool for systems engineers, researchers and regulators in enhancing the fairness and reliability of LLMs. It highlights the potential of LLMs in mimicking unbiased human-like responses. Additionally, it underscores the necessity of continuously monitoring and recalibrating such models to align with evolving societal norms and ethical standards.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

This study examines the impact of historical text normalization on the classification of medieval charters, specifically focusing on document dating and locating. Using a data set of Middle High German charters from a digital archive, we evaluate various classifiers, including traditional and transformer-based models, with and without normalization. Our results indicate that the given normalization minimally improves locating tasks but reduces accuracy for dating, implying that original texts contain crucial features that normalization may obscure. We find that support vector machines and gradient boosting outperform other models, questioning the efficiency of transformers for this use case. Results suggest a selective approach to historical text normalization, emphasizing the significance of preserving some textual characteristics that are critical for classification tasks in document analysis.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

While making investment decisions by reading financial documents, investors need to differentiate between in-claim and outof-claim numerals. In this paper, we present a tool which does it automatically. It extracts context embeddings of the numerals using one of the transformer based pre-trained language model called BERT. After this, it uses a Logistic Regression based model to detect whether the numerals is in-claim or out-of-claim. We use FinNum-3 (English) dataset to train our model. After conducting rigorous experiments we achieve a Macro F1 score of 0.8223 on the validation set. We have open-sourced this tool and it can be accessed from https://github.com/sohomghosh/FiNCAT_Financial_Numeral_Claim_Analysis_Tool

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Learning to Rank (LTR) algorithms are usually evaluated using Information Retrieval metrics like Normalised Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) or Mean Average Precision. As these metrics rely on sorting predicted items' scores (and thus, on items' ranks), their derivatives are either undefined or zero everywhere. This makes them unsuitable for gradient-based optimisation, which is the usual method of learning appropriate scoring functions. Commonly used LTR loss functions are only loosely related to the evaluation metrics, causing a mismatch between the optimisation objective and the evaluation criterion. In this paper, we address this mismatch by proposing NeuralNDCG, a novel differentiable approximation to NDCG. Since NDCG relies on the non-differentiable sorting operator, we obtain NeuralNDCG by relaxing that operator using NeuralSort, a differentiable approximation of sorting. As a result, we obtain a new ranking loss function which is an arbitrarily accurate approximation to the evaluation metric, thus closing the gap between the training and the evaluation of LTR models. We introduce two variants of the proposed loss function. Finally, the empirical evaluation shows that our proposed method outperforms previous work aimed at direct optimisation of NDCG and is competitive with the state-of-the-art methods.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

Moderators and automated methods enforce bans on malicious users who engage in disruptive behavior. However, malicious users can easily create a new account to evade such bans. Previous research has focused on other forms of online deception, like the simultaneous operation of multiple accounts by the same entities (sockpuppetry), impersonation of other individuals, and studying the effects of de-platforming individuals and communities. Here we conduct the first data-driven study of ban evasion, i.e., the act of circumventing bans on an online platform, leading to temporally disjoint operation of accounts by the same user. We curate a novel dataset of 8,551 ban evasion pairs (parent, child) identified on Wikipedia and contrast their behavior with benign users and non-evading malicious users. We find that evasion child accounts demonstrate similarities with respect to their banned parent accounts on several behavioral axes - from similarity in usernames and edited pages to similarity in content added to the platform and its psycholinguistic attributes. We reveal key behavioral attributes of accounts that are likely to evade bans. Based on the insights from the analyses, we train logistic regression classifiers to detect and predict ban evasion at three different points in the ban evasion lifecycle. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in predicting future evaders (AUC = 0.78), early detection of ban evasion (AUC = 0.85), and matching child accounts with parent accounts (MRR = 0.97). Our work can aid moderators by reducing their workload and identifying evasion pairs faster and more efficiently than current manual and heuristic-based approaches. Dataset is available https://github.com/srijankr/ban_evasion{here}.

We study how multilingual sentence representations capture European countries and occupations and how this differs across European languages. We prompt the models with templated sentences that we machine-translate into 12 European languages and analyze the most prominent dimensions in the embeddings.Our analysis reveals that the most prominent feature in the embedding is the geopolitical distinction between Eastern and Western Europe and the country's economic strength in terms of GDP. When prompted specifically for job prestige, the embedding space clearly distinguishes high and low-prestige jobs. The occupational dimension is uncorrelated with the most dominant country dimensions in three out of four studied models. The exception is a small distilled model that exhibits a connection between occupational prestige and country of origin, which is a potential source of nationality-based discrimination. Our findings are consistent across languages.

We present the winning entry to the Multilingual Lexical Normalization (MultiLexNorm) shared task at W-NUT 2021 (van der Goot et al., 2021a), which evaluates lexical-normalization systems on 12 social media datasets in 11 languages. We base our solution on a pre-trained byte-level language model, ByT5 (Xue et al., 2021a), which we further pre-train on synthetic data and then fine-tune on authentic normalization data. Our system achieves the best performance by a wide margin in intrinsic evaluation, and also the best performance in extrinsic evaluation through dependency parsing. The source code is released at https://github.com/ufal/multilexnorm2021 and the fine-tuned models at https://huggingface.co/ufal.

Most models in machine learning contain at least one hyperparameter to control for model complexity. Choosing an appropriate set of hyperparameters is both crucial in terms of model accuracy and computationally challenging. In this work we propose an algorithm for the optimization of continuous hyperparameters using inexact gradient information. An advantage of this method is that hyperparameters can be updated before model parameters have fully converged. We also give sufficient conditions for the global convergence of this method, based on regularity conditions of the involved functions and summability of errors. Finally, we validate the empirical performance of this method on the estimation of regularization constants of L2-regularized logistic regression and kernel Ridge regression. Empirical benchmarks indicate that our approach is highly competitive with respect to state of the art methods.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

Many evaluation measures are used to evaluate social biases in masked language models (MLMs). However, we find that these previously proposed evaluation measures are lacking robustness in scenarios with limited datasets. This is because these measures are obtained by comparing the pseudo-log-likelihood (PLL) scores of the stereotypical and anti-stereotypical samples using an indicator function. The disadvantage is the limited mining of the PLL score sets without capturing its distributional information. In this paper, we represent a PLL score set as a Gaussian distribution and use Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence and Jensen Shannon (JS) divergence to construct evaluation measures for the distributions of stereotypical and anti-stereotypical PLL scores. Experimental results on the publicly available datasets StereoSet (SS) and CrowS-Pairs (CP) show that our proposed measures are significantly more robust and interpretable than those proposed previously.

There is an emerging consensus that we need to align AI systems with human values (Gabriel, 2020; Ji et al., 2024), but it remains unclear how to apply this to language models in practice. We split the problem of "aligning to human values" into three parts: first, eliciting values from people; second, reconciling those values into an alignment target for training ML models; and third, actually training the model. In this paper, we focus on the first two parts, and ask the question: what are "good" ways to synthesize diverse human inputs about values into a target for aligning language models? To answer this question, we first define a set of 6 criteria that we believe must be satisfied for an alignment target to shape model behavior in accordance with human values. We then propose a process for eliciting and reconciling values called Moral Graph Elicitation (MGE), which uses a large language model to interview participants about their values in particular contexts; our approach is inspired by the philosophy of values advanced by Taylor (1977), Chang (2004), and others. We trial MGE with a representative sample of 500 Americans, on 3 intentionally divisive prompts (e.g. advice about abortion). Our results demonstrate that MGE is promising for improving model alignment across all 6 criteria. For example, almost all participants (89.1%) felt well represented by the process, and (89%) thought the final moral graph was fair, even if their value wasn't voted as the wisest. Our process often results in "expert" values (e.g. values from women who have solicited abortion advice) rising to the top of the moral graph, without defining who is considered an expert in advance.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into various global cultures fundamentally presents a cultural challenge: LLMs must navigate interactions, respect social norms, and avoid transgressing cultural boundaries. However, it is still unclear if LLMs can adapt their outputs to diverse cultural norms. Our study focuses on this aspect. We introduce NormAd, a novel dataset, which includes 2.6k stories that represent social and cultural norms from 75 countries, to assess the ability of LLMs to adapt to different granular levels of socio-cultural contexts such as the country of origin, its associated cultural values, and prevalent social norms. Our study reveals that LLMs struggle with cultural reasoning across all contextual granularities, showing stronger adaptability to English-centric cultures over those from the Global South. Even with explicit social norms, the top-performing model, Mistral-7b-Instruct, achieves only 81.8\% accuracy, lagging behind the 95.6\% achieved by humans. Evaluation on NormAd further reveals that LLMs struggle to adapt to stories involving gift-giving across cultures. Due to inherent agreement or sycophancy biases, LLMs find it considerably easier to assess the social acceptability of stories that adhere to cultural norms than those that deviate from them. Our benchmark measures the cultural adaptability (or lack thereof) of LLMs, emphasizing the potential to make these technologies more equitable and useful for global audiences. We release the NormAd dataset and its associated code on GitHub.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as properness, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to learn losses and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps R to [0,1] to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between R^{C-1} and the projected probability simplex Delta^{C-1} by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns proper canonical losses and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a t-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both populations. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach and empirically evaluate its ability to achieve both fairness and accuracy, using datasets from the fields of criminal risk assessment, credit, lending, and college admissions.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

We make two contributions in the field of AI fairness over continuous protected attributes. First, we show that the Hirschfeld-Gebelein-Renyi (HGR) indicator (the only one currently available for such a case) is valuable but subject to a few crucial limitations regarding semantics, interpretability, and robustness. Second, we introduce a family of indicators that are: 1) complementary to HGR in terms of semantics; 2) fully interpretable and transparent; 3) robust over finite samples; 4) configurable to suit specific applications. Our approach also allows us to define fine-grained constraints to permit certain types of dependence and forbid others selectively. By expanding the available options for continuous protected attributes, our approach represents a significant contribution to the area of fair artificial intelligence.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

University rankings are increasingly adopted for academic comparison and success quantification, even to establish performance-based criteria for funding assignment. However, rankings are not neutral tools, and their use frequently overlooks disparities in the starting conditions of institutions. In this research, we detect and measure structural biases that affect in inhomogeneous ways the ranking outcomes of universities from diversified territorial and educational contexts. Moreover, we develop a fairer rating system based on a fully data-driven debiasing strategy that returns an equity-oriented redefinition of the achieved scores. The key idea consists in partitioning universities in similarity groups, determined from multifaceted data using complex network analysis, and referring the performance of each institution to an expectation based on its peers. Significant evidence of territorial biases emerges for official rankings concerning both the OECD and Italian university systems, hence debiasing provides relevant insights suggesting the design of fairer strategies for performance-based funding allocations.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) is a score-based discrepancy widely used in goodness-of-fit tests. It can be applied even when the target distribution has an unknown normalising factor, such as in Bayesian analysis. We show theoretically and empirically that the KSD test can suffer from low power when the target and the alternative distributions have the same well-separated modes but differ in mixing proportions. We propose to perturb the observed sample via Markov transition kernels, with respect to which the target distribution is invariant. This allows us to then employ the KSD test on the perturbed sample. We provide numerical evidence that with suitably chosen transition kernels the proposed approach can lead to substantially higher power than the KSD test.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

This paper presents AI Wizards' participation in the CLEF 2025 CheckThat! Lab Task 1: Subjectivity Detection in News Articles, classifying sentences as subjective/objective in monolingual, multilingual, and zero-shot settings. Training/development datasets were provided for Arabic, German, English, Italian, and Bulgarian; final evaluation included additional unseen languages (e.g., Greek, Romanian, Polish, Ukrainian) to assess generalization. Our primary strategy enhanced transformer-based classifiers by integrating sentiment scores, derived from an auxiliary model, with sentence representations, aiming to improve upon standard fine-tuning. We explored this sentiment-augmented architecture with mDeBERTaV3-base, ModernBERT-base (English), and Llama3.2-1B. To address class imbalance, prevalent across languages, we employed decision threshold calibration optimized on the development set. Our experiments show sentiment feature integration significantly boosts performance, especially subjective F1 score. This framework led to high rankings, notably 1st for Greek (Macro F1 = 0.51).

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to infer an agent's preferences (represented as a reward function R) from their behaviour (represented as a policy pi). To do this, we need a behavioural model of how pi relates to R. In the current literature, the most common behavioural models are optimality, Boltzmann-rationality, and causal entropy maximisation. However, the true relationship between a human's preferences and their behaviour is much more complex than any of these behavioural models. This means that the behavioural models are misspecified, which raises the concern that they may lead to systematic errors if applied to real data. In this paper, we analyse how sensitive the IRL problem is to misspecification of the behavioural model. Specifically, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that completely characterise how the observed data may differ from the assumed behavioural model without incurring an error above a given threshold. In addition to this, we also characterise the conditions under which a behavioural model is robust to small perturbations of the observed policy, and we analyse how robust many behavioural models are to misspecification of their parameter values (such as e.g.\ the discount rate). Our analysis suggests that the IRL problem is highly sensitive to misspecification, in the sense that very mild misspecification can lead to very large errors in the inferred reward function.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

Machine learning models are often personalized with categorical attributes that are protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. In this work, we show models that are personalized with group attributes can reduce performance at a group level. We propose formal conditions to ensure the "fair use" of group attributes in prediction tasks by training one additional model -- i.e., collective preference guarantees to ensure that each group who provides personal data will receive a tailored gain in performance in return. We present sufficient conditions to ensure fair use in empirical risk minimization and characterize failure modes that lead to fair use violations due to standard practices in model development and deployment. We present a comprehensive empirical study of fair use in clinical prediction tasks. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of fair use violations in practice and illustrate simple interventions to mitigate their harm.

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the GPT-4 and LLaMA families, have demonstrated considerable success across diverse tasks, including multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, these models exhibit a positional bias, particularly an even worse anchored bias in the GPT-2 family, where they consistently favour the first choice 'A' in MCQs during inference. This anchored bias challenges the integrity of GPT-2's decision-making process, as it skews performance based on the position rather than the content of the choices in MCQs. In this study, we utilise the mechanistic interpretability approach to identify the internal modules within GPT-2 models responsible for this bias. We focus on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) layers and attention heads, using the "logit lens" method to trace and modify the specific value vectors that contribute to the bias. By updating these vectors within MLP and recalibrating attention patterns to neutralise the preference for the first choice 'A', we effectively mitigate the anchored bias. Our interventions not only mitigate the bias but also improve the overall MCQ prediction accuracy for the GPT-2 family across various datasets. This work represents the first comprehensive mechanistic analysis of anchored bias in MCQs within the GPT-2 models, introducing targeted, minimal-intervention strategies that significantly enhance GPT2 model robustness and accuracy in MCQs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruizheliUOA/Anchored_Bias_GPT2.

This paper offers a new perspective to ease the challenge of domain generalization, which involves maintaining robust results even in unseen environments. Our design focuses on the decision-making process in the final classifier layer. Specifically, we propose treating the element-wise contributions to the final results as the rationale for making a decision and representing the rationale for each sample as a matrix. For a well-generalized model, we suggest the rationale matrices for samples belonging to the same category should be similar, indicating the model relies on domain-invariant clues to make decisions, thereby ensuring robust results. To implement this idea, we introduce a rationale invariance loss as a simple regularization technique, requiring only a few lines of code. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive results across various datasets, despite its simplicity. Code is available at https://github.com/liangchen527/RIDG.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

The recent integration of deep learning and pairwise similarity annotation-based constrained clustering -- i.e., deep constrained clustering (DCC) -- has proven effective for incorporating weak supervision into massive data clustering: Less than 1% of pair similarity annotations can often substantially enhance the clustering accuracy. However, beyond empirical successes, there is a lack of understanding of DCC. In addition, many DCC paradigms are sensitive to annotation noise, but performance-guaranteed noisy DCC methods have been largely elusive. This work first takes a deep look into a recently emerged logistic loss function of DCC, and characterizes its theoretical properties. Our result shows that the logistic DCC loss ensures the identifiability of data membership under reasonable conditions, which may shed light on its effectiveness in practice. Building upon this understanding, a new loss function based on geometric factor analysis is proposed to fend against noisy annotations. It is shown that even under unknown annotation confusions, the data membership can still be provably identified under our proposed learning criterion. The proposed approach is tested over multiple datasets to validate our claims.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

We present NormBank, a knowledge bank of 155k situational norms. This resource is designed to ground flexible normative reasoning for interactive, assistive, and collaborative AI systems. Unlike prior commonsense resources, NormBank grounds each inference within a multivalent sociocultural frame, which includes the setting (e.g., restaurant), the agents' contingent roles (waiter, customer), their attributes (age, gender), and other physical, social, and cultural constraints (e.g., the temperature or the country of operation). In total, NormBank contains 63k unique constraints from a taxonomy that we introduce and iteratively refine here. Constraints then apply in different combinations to frame social norms. Under these manipulations, norms are non-monotonic - one can cancel an inference by updating its frame even slightly. Still, we find evidence that neural models can help reliably extend the scope and coverage of NormBank. We further demonstrate the utility of this resource with a series of transfer experiments.

The ability to identify whether or not a test sample belongs to one of the semantic classes in a classifier's training set is critical to practical deployment of the model. This task is termed open-set recognition (OSR) and has received significant attention in recent years. In this paper, we first demonstrate that the ability of a classifier to make the 'none-of-above' decision is highly correlated with its accuracy on the closed-set classes. We find that this relationship holds across loss objectives and architectures, and further demonstrate the trend both on the standard OSR benchmarks as well as on a large-scale ImageNet evaluation. Second, we use this correlation to boost the performance of a maximum logit score OSR 'baseline' by improving its closed-set accuracy, and with this strong baseline achieve state-of-the-art on a number of OSR benchmarks. Similarly, we boost the performance of the existing state-of-the-art method by improving its closed-set accuracy, but the resulting discrepancy with the strong baseline is marginal. Our third contribution is to present the 'Semantic Shift Benchmark' (SSB), which better respects the task of detecting semantic novelty, in contrast to other forms of distribution shift also considered in related sub-fields, such as out-of-distribution detection. On this new evaluation, we again demonstrate that there is negligible difference between the strong baseline and the existing state-of-the-art. Project Page: https://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/~vgg/research/osr/

Continual learning entails learning a sequence of tasks and balancing their knowledge appropriately. With limited access to old training samples, much of the current work in deep neural networks has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting of old tasks in gradient-based optimization. However, the normalization layers provide an exception, as they are updated interdependently by the gradient and statistics of currently observed training samples, which require specialized strategies to mitigate recency bias. In this work, we focus on the most popular Batch Normalization (BN) and provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of its sub-optimality in continual learning. Our analysis demonstrates the dilemma between balance and adaptation of BN statistics for incremental tasks, which potentially affects training stability and generalization. Targeting on these particular challenges, we propose Adaptive Balance of BN (AdaB^2N), which incorporates appropriately a Bayesian-based strategy to adapt task-wise contributions and a modified momentum to balance BN statistics, corresponding to the training and testing stages. By implementing BN in a continual learning fashion, our approach achieves significant performance gains across a wide range of benchmarks, particularly for the challenging yet realistic online scenarios (e.g., up to 7.68%, 6.86% and 4.26% on Split CIFAR-10, Split CIFAR-100 and Split Mini-ImageNet, respectively). Our code is available at https://github.com/lvyilin/AdaB2N.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

In order to fully harness the potential of machine learning, it is crucial to establish a system that renders the field more accessible and less daunting for individuals who may not possess a comprehensive understanding of its intricacies. The paper describes the design of a system that integrates AutoML, XAI, and synthetic data generation to provide a great UX design for users. The system allows users to navigate and harness the power of machine learning while abstracting its complexities and providing high usability. The paper proposes two novel classifiers, Logistic Regression Forest and Support Vector Tree, for enhanced model performance, achieving 96\% accuracy on a diabetes dataset and 93\% on a survey dataset. The paper also introduces a model-dependent local interpreter called MEDLEY and evaluates its interpretation against LIME, Greedy, and Parzen. Additionally, the paper introduces LLM-based synthetic data generation, library-based data generation, and enhancing the original dataset with GAN. The findings on synthetic data suggest that enhancing the original dataset with GAN is the most reliable way to generate synthetic data, as evidenced by KS tests, standard deviation, and feature importance. The authors also found that GAN works best for quantitative datasets.

Autonomous agents trained using deep reinforcement learning (RL) often lack the ability to successfully generalise to new environments, even when these environments share characteristics with the ones they have encountered during training. In this work, we investigate how the sampling of individual environment instances, or levels, affects the zero-shot generalisation (ZSG) ability of RL agents. We discover that, for deep actor-critic architectures sharing their base layers, prioritising levels according to their value loss minimises the mutual information between the agent's internal representation and the set of training levels in the generated training data. This provides a novel theoretical justification for the regularisation achieved by certain adaptive sampling strategies. We then turn our attention to unsupervised environment design (UED) methods, which assume control over level generation. We find that existing UED methods can significantly shift the training distribution, which translates to low ZSG performance. To prevent both overfitting and distributional shift, we introduce data-regularised environment design (DRED). DRED generates levels using a generative model trained to approximate the ground truth distribution of an initial set of level parameters. Through its grounding, DRED achieves significant improvements in ZSG over adaptive level sampling strategies and UED methods. Our code and experimental data are available at https://github.com/uoe-agents/dred.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Direct Alignment Algorithms (DAAs), such as Direct Preference Optimisation (DPO) and Identity Preference Optimisation (IPO), have emerged as alternatives to online Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) algorithms such as Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) for aligning language models to human preferences, without the need for explicit reward modelling. These methods generally aim to increase the likelihood of generating better (preferred) completions while discouraging worse (non-preferred) ones, while staying close to the original model's behaviour. In this work, we explore the relationship between completion likelihood and model performance in state-of-the-art DAAs, and identify a critical issue of likelihood over-optimisation. Contrary to expectations, we find that higher likelihood of better completions and larger margins between better and worse completion likelihoods do not necessarily lead to better performance, and may even degrade it. Our analysis reveals that while higher likelihood correlates with better memorisation of factual knowledge patterns, a slightly lower completion likelihood tends to improve output diversity, thus leading to better generalisation to unseen scenarios. Moreover, we identify two key indicators that signal when over-optimised output diversity begins to harm performance: Decreasing Entropy over Top-k Tokens and Diminishing Top-k Probability Mass. Our experimental results validate that these indicators are reliable signs of declining performance under different regularisations, helping prevent over-optimisation and improve alignment with human preferences.

Understanding biases and stereotypes encoded in the weights of Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. Biased behaviour is often subtle and non-trivial to isolate, even when deliberately elicited, making systematic analysis and debiasing particularly challenging. To address this, we introduce BiasGym, a simple, cost-effective, and generalizable framework for reliably injecting, analyzing, and mitigating conceptual associations within LLMs. BiasGym consists of two components: BiasInject, which injects specific biases into the model via token-based fine-tuning while keeping the model frozen, and BiasScope, which leverages these injected signals to identify and steer the components responsible for biased behavior. Our method enables consistent bias elicitation for mechanistic analysis, supports targeted debiasing without degrading performance on downstream tasks, and generalizes to biases unseen during training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BiasGym in reducing real-world stereotypes (e.g., people from a country being `reckless drivers') and in probing fictional associations (e.g., people from a country having `blue skin'), showing its utility for both safety interventions and interpretability research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized in autonomous decision-making, where they sample options from vast action spaces. However, the heuristics that guide this sampling process remain under-explored. We study this sampling behavior and show that this underlying heuristics resembles that of human decision-making: comprising a descriptive component (reflecting statistical norm) and a prescriptive component (implicit ideal encoded in the LLM) of a concept. We show that this deviation of a sample from the statistical norm towards a prescriptive component consistently appears in concepts across diverse real-world domains like public health, and economic trends. To further illustrate the theory, we demonstrate that concept prototypes in LLMs are affected by prescriptive norms, similar to the concept of normality in humans. Through case studies and comparison with human studies, we illustrate that in real-world applications, the shift of samples toward an ideal value in LLMs' outputs can result in significantly biased decision-making, raising ethical concerns.

Local/Native South African languages are classified as low-resource languages. As such, it is essential to build the resources for these languages so that they can benefit from advances in the field of natural language processing. In this work, the focus was to create annotated news datasets for the isiZulu and Siswati native languages based on news topic classification tasks and present the findings from these baseline classification models. Due to the shortage of data for these native South African languages, the datasets that were created were augmented and oversampled to increase data size and overcome class classification imbalance. In total, four different classification models were used namely Logistic regression, Naive bayes, XGBoost and LSTM. These models were trained on three different word embeddings namely Bag-Of-Words, TFIDF and Word2vec. The results of this study showed that XGBoost, Logistic Regression and LSTM, trained from Word2vec performed better than the other combinations.

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of first training a teacher model and then using its predictions to train a student model with the same architecture. Specifically, the student's objective function is big(xi*ell(teacher's predictions, student's predictions) + (1-xi)*ell(given labels, student's predictions)big), where ell is some loss function and xi is some parameter in [0,1]. Empirically, SD has been observed to provide performance gains in several settings. In this paper, we theoretically characterize the effect of SD in two supervised learning problems with noisy labels. We first analyze SD for regularized linear regression and show that in the high label noise regime, the optimal value of xi that minimizes the expected error in estimating the ground truth parameter is surprisingly greater than 1. Empirically, we show that xi > 1 works better than xi leq 1 even with the cross-entropy loss for several classification datasets when 50\% or 30\% of the labels are corrupted. Further, we quantify when optimal SD is better than optimal regularization. Next, we analyze SD in the case of logistic regression for binary classification with random label corruption and quantify the range of label corruption in which the student outperforms the teacher in terms of accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind for the cross-entropy loss.

As language models (LMs) advance, interest is growing in applying them to high-stakes societal decisions, such as determining financing or housing eligibility. However, their potential for discrimination in such contexts raises ethical concerns, motivating the need for better methods to evaluate these risks. We present a method for proactively evaluating the potential discriminatory impact of LMs in a wide range of use cases, including hypothetical use cases where they have not yet been deployed. Specifically, we use an LM to generate a wide array of potential prompts that decision-makers may input into an LM, spanning 70 diverse decision scenarios across society, and systematically vary the demographic information in each prompt. Applying this methodology reveals patterns of both positive and negative discrimination in the Claude 2.0 model in select settings when no interventions are applied. While we do not endorse or permit the use of language models to make automated decisions for the high-risk use cases we study, we demonstrate techniques to significantly decrease both positive and negative discrimination through careful prompt engineering, providing pathways toward safer deployment in use cases where they may be appropriate. Our work enables developers and policymakers to anticipate, measure, and address discrimination as language model capabilities and applications continue to expand. We release our dataset and prompts at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/discrim-eval

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

The capabilities of natural language models trained on large-scale data have increased immensely over the past few years. Open source libraries such as HuggingFace have made these models easily available and accessible. While prior research has identified biases in large language models, this paper considers biases contained in the most popular versions of these models when applied `out-of-the-box' for downstream tasks. We focus on generative language models as they are well-suited for extracting biases inherited from training data. Specifically, we conduct an in-depth analysis of GPT-2, which is the most downloaded text generation model on HuggingFace, with over half a million downloads per month. We assess biases related to occupational associations for different protected categories by intersecting gender with religion, sexuality, ethnicity, political affiliation, and continental name origin. Using a template-based data collection pipeline, we collect 396K sentence completions made by GPT-2 and find: (i) The machine-predicted jobs are less diverse and more stereotypical for women than for men, especially for intersections; (ii) Intersectional interactions are highly relevant for occupational associations, which we quantify by fitting 262 logistic models; (iii) For most occupations, GPT-2 reflects the skewed gender and ethnicity distribution found in US Labor Bureau data, and even pulls the societally-skewed distribution towards gender parity in cases where its predictions deviate from real labor market observations. This raises the normative question of what language models should learn - whether they should reflect or correct for existing inequalities.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

The optimal transport problem for measures supported on non-Euclidean spaces has recently gained ample interest in diverse applications involving representation learning. In this paper, we focus on circular probability measures, i.e., probability measures supported on the unit circle, and introduce a new computationally efficient metric for these measures, denoted as Linear Circular Optimal Transport (LCOT). The proposed metric comes with an explicit linear embedding that allows one to apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to the embedded measures and seamlessly modify the underlying metric for the ML algorithm to LCOT. We show that the proposed metric is rooted in the Circular Optimal Transport (COT) and can be considered the linearization of the COT metric with respect to a fixed reference measure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed metric and derive the computational complexities for pairwise comparison of circular probability measures. Lastly, through a set of numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits of LCOT in learning representations of circular measures.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Bias in textual data can lead to skewed interpretations and outcomes when the data is used. These biases could perpetuate stereotypes, discrimination, or other forms of unfair treatment. An algorithm trained on biased data may end up making decisions that disproportionately impact a certain group of people. Therefore, it is crucial to detect and remove these biases to ensure the fair and ethical use of data. To this end, we develop a comprehensive and robust framework NBIAS that consists of four main layers: data, corpus construction, model development and an evaluation layer. The dataset is constructed by collecting diverse data from various domains, including social media, healthcare, and job hiring portals. As such, we applied a transformer-based token classification model that is able to identify bias words/ phrases through a unique named entity BIAS. In the evaluation procedure, we incorporate a blend of quantitative and qualitative measures to gauge the effectiveness of our models. We achieve accuracy improvements ranging from 1% to 8% compared to baselines. We are also able to generate a robust understanding of the model functioning. The proposed approach is applicable to a variety of biases and contributes to the fair and ethical use of textual data.

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be distributionally aligned remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.

Text generation models are notoriously vulnerable to errors in the training data. With the wide-spread availability of massive amounts of web-crawled data becoming more commonplace, how can we enhance the robustness of models trained on a massive amount of noisy web-crawled text? In our work, we propose Error Norm Truncation (ENT), a robust enhancement method to the standard training objective that truncates noisy data. Compared to methods that only uses the negative log-likelihood loss to estimate data quality, our method provides a more accurate estimation by considering the distribution of non-target tokens, which is often overlooked by previous work. Through comprehensive experiments across language modeling, machine translation, and text summarization, we show that equipping text generation models with ENT improves generation quality over standard training and previous soft and hard truncation methods. Furthermore, we show that our method improves the robustness of models against two of the most detrimental types of noise in machine translation, resulting in an increase of more than 2 BLEU points over the MLE baseline when up to 50% of noise is added to the data.

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

Depression is a global burden and one of the most challenging mental health conditions to control. Experts can detect its severity early using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) questionnaire, administer appropriate medication to patients, and impede its progression. Due to the fear of potential stigmatization, many patients turn to social media platforms like Reddit for advice and assistance at various stages of their journey. This research extracts text from Reddit to facilitate the diagnostic process. It employs a proposed labeling approach to categorize the text and subsequently fine-tunes the Longformer model. The model's performance is compared against baseline models, including Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Gradient Boosting. Our findings reveal that the Longformer model outperforms the baseline models in both English (48%) and Luganda (45%) languages on a custom-made dataset.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

Pre-trained multilingual language models (PMLMs) are commonly used when dealing with data from multiple languages and cross-lingual transfer. However, PMLMs are trained on varying amounts of data for each language. In practice this means their performance is often much better on English than many other languages. We explore to what extent this also applies to moral norms. Do the models capture moral norms from English and impose them on other languages? Do the models exhibit random and thus potentially harmful beliefs in certain languages? Both these issues could negatively impact cross-lingual transfer and potentially lead to harmful outcomes. In this paper, we (1) apply the MoralDirection framework to multilingual models, comparing results in German, Czech, Arabic, Mandarin Chinese, and English, (2) analyse model behaviour on filtered parallel subtitles corpora, and (3) apply the models to a Moral Foundations Questionnaire, comparing with human responses from different countries. Our experiments demonstrate that, indeed, PMLMs encode differing moral biases, but these do not necessarily correspond to cultural differences or commonalities in human opinions.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

This paper presents the ZJUKLAB team's submission for SemEval-2025 Task 4: Unlearning Sensitive Content from Large Language Models. This task aims to selectively erase sensitive knowledge from large language models, avoiding both over-forgetting and under-forgetting issues. We propose an unlearning system that leverages Model Merging (specifically TIES-Merging), combining two specialized models into a more balanced unlearned model. Our system achieves competitive results, ranking second among 26 teams, with an online score of 0.944 for Task Aggregate and 0.487 for overall Aggregate. In this paper, we also conduct local experiments and perform a comprehensive analysis of the unlearning process, examining performance trajectories, loss dynamics, and weight perspectives, along with several supplementary experiments, to understand the effectiveness of our method. Furthermore, we analyze the shortcomings of our method and evaluation metrics, emphasizing that MIA scores and ROUGE-based metrics alone are insufficient to fully evaluate successful unlearning. Finally, we emphasize the need for more comprehensive evaluation methodologies and rethinking of unlearning objectives in future research. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/unlearn/tree/main/semeval25.

Existing knowledge distillation methods typically work by imparting the knowledge of output logits or intermediate feature maps from the teacher network to the student network, which is very successful in multi-class single-label learning. However, these methods can hardly be extended to the multi-label learning scenario, where each instance is associated with multiple semantic labels, because the prediction probabilities do not sum to one and feature maps of the whole example may ignore minor classes in such a scenario. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-label knowledge distillation method. On one hand, it exploits the informative semantic knowledge from the logits by dividing the multi-label learning problem into a set of binary classification problems; on the other hand, it enhances the distinctiveness of the learned feature representations by leveraging the structural information of label-wise embeddings. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets validate that the proposed method can avoid knowledge counteraction among labels, thus achieving superior performance against diverse comparing methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/penghui-yang/L2D

Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing models cannot produce text with calibrated confidence statements. Through the lens of decision-making, we formalize linguistic calibration for long-form generations: an LM is linguistically calibrated if its generations enable its users to make calibrated probabilistic predictions. This definition enables a training framework where a supervised finetuning step bootstraps an LM to emit long-form generations with confidence statements such as "I estimate a 30% chance of..." or "I am certain that...", followed by a reinforcement learning step which rewards generations that enable a user to provide calibrated answers to related questions. We linguistically calibrate Llama 2 7B and find in automated and human evaluations of long-form generations that it is significantly more calibrated than strong finetuned factuality baselines with comparable accuracy. These findings generalize under distribution shift on question-answering and under a significant task shift to person biography generation. Our results demonstrate that long-form generations may be calibrated end-to-end by constructing an objective in the space of the predictions that users make in downstream decision-making.

Automatic medical report generation (MRG) is of great research value as it has the potential to relieve radiologists from the heavy burden of report writing. Despite recent advancements, accurate MRG remains challenging due to the need for precise clinical understanding and the identification of clinical findings. Moreover, the imbalanced distribution of diseases makes the challenge even more pronounced, as rare diseases are underrepresented in training data, making their diagnostic performance unreliable. To address these challenges, we propose diagnosis-driven prompts for medical report generation (PromptMRG), a novel framework that aims to improve the diagnostic accuracy of MRG with the guidance of diagnosis-aware prompts. Specifically, PromptMRG is based on encoder-decoder architecture with an extra disease classification branch. When generating reports, the diagnostic results from the classification branch are converted into token prompts to explicitly guide the generation process. To further improve the diagnostic accuracy, we design cross-modal feature enhancement, which retrieves similar reports from the database to assist the diagnosis of a query image by leveraging the knowledge from a pre-trained CLIP. Moreover, the disease imbalanced issue is addressed by applying an adaptive logit-adjusted loss to the classification branch based on the individual learning status of each disease, which overcomes the barrier of text decoder's inability to manipulate disease distributions. Experiments on two MRG benchmarks show the effectiveness of the proposed method, where it obtains state-of-the-art clinical efficacy performance on both datasets.

Block coordinate descent (BCD) methods are widely used for large-scale numerical optimization because of their cheap iteration costs, low memory requirements, amenability to parallelization, and ability to exploit problem structure. Three main algorithmic choices influence the performance of BCD methods: the block partitioning strategy, the block selection rule, and the block update rule. In this paper we explore all three of these building blocks and propose variations for each that can significantly improve the progress made by each BCD iteration. We (i) propose new greedy block-selection strategies that guarantee more progress per iteration than the Gauss-Southwell rule; (ii) explore practical issues like how to implement the new rules when using "variable" blocks; (iii) explore the use of message-passing to compute matrix or Newton updates efficiently on huge blocks for problems with sparse dependencies between variables; and (iv) consider optimal active manifold identification, which leads to bounds on the "active-set complexity" of BCD methods and leads to superlinear convergence for certain problems with sparse solutions (and in some cases finite termination at an optimal solution). We support all of our findings with numerical results for the classic machine learning problems of least squares, logistic regression, multi-class logistic regression, label propagation, and L1-regularization.

Warning: this paper contains model outputs exhibiting offensiveness and biases. Recently pre-trained language models (PLMs) have prospered in various natural language generation (NLG) tasks due to their ability to generate fairly fluent text. Nevertheless, these models are observed to capture and reproduce harmful contents in training corpora, typically toxic language and social biases, raising severe moral issues. Prior works on ethical NLG tackle detoxifying and debiasing separately, which is problematic since we find debiased models still exhibit toxicity while detoxified ones even exacerbate biases. To address such a challenge, we propose the first unified framework of detoxifying and debiasing called UDDIA, which jointly formalizes these two problems as rectifying the output space. We theoretically interpret our framework as learning a text distribution mixing weighted attributes. Besides, UDDIA conducts adaptive optimization of only a few parameters during decoding based on a parameter-efficient tuning schema without any training data. This leads to minimal generation quality loss and improved rectification performance with acceptable computational cost. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to several strong baselines, UDDIA achieves debiasing and detoxifying simultaneously and better balances efficiency and effectiveness, taking a further step towards practical ethical NLG.