ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Paper • 2409.19839 • Published • 1
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The dataset generation failed
Error code: DatasetGenerationError
Exception: TypeError
Message: Couldn't cast array of type
struct<consulted_urls: list<item: string>, direction: null, forecast: double, id: string, reasoning: string, resolution_date: string, searches: list<item: string>, source: string, user_id: string>
to
{'direction': Value('null'), 'forecast': Value('float64'), 'id': Value('string'), 'reasoning': Value('string'), 'resolution_date': Value('string'), 'source': Value('string'), 'user_id': Value('string')}
Traceback: Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1831, in _prepare_split_single
writer.write_table(table)
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/arrow_writer.py", line 714, in write_table
pa_table = table_cast(pa_table, self._schema)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2272, in table_cast
return cast_table_to_schema(table, schema)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2224, in cast_table_to_schema
cast_array_to_feature(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 1795, in wrapper
return pa.chunked_array([func(chunk, *args, **kwargs) for chunk in array.chunks])
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2092, in cast_array_to_feature
raise TypeError(f"Couldn't cast array of type\n{_short_str(array.type)}\nto\n{_short_str(feature)}")
TypeError: Couldn't cast array of type
struct<consulted_urls: list<item: string>, direction: null, forecast: double, id: string, reasoning: string, resolution_date: string, searches: list<item: string>, source: string, user_id: string>
to
{'direction': Value('null'), 'forecast': Value('float64'), 'id': Value('string'), 'reasoning': Value('string'), 'resolution_date': Value('string'), 'source': Value('string'), 'user_id': Value('string')}
The above exception was the direct cause of the following exception:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1339, in compute_config_parquet_and_info_response
parquet_operations = convert_to_parquet(builder)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 972, in convert_to_parquet
builder.download_and_prepare(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 894, in download_and_prepare
self._download_and_prepare(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 970, in _download_and_prepare
self._prepare_split(split_generator, **prepare_split_kwargs)
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1702, in _prepare_split
for job_id, done, content in self._prepare_split_single(
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1858, in _prepare_split_single
raise DatasetGenerationError("An error occurred while generating the dataset") from e
datasets.exceptions.DatasetGenerationError: An error occurred while generating the datasetNeed help to make the dataset viewer work? Make sure to review how to configure the dataset viewer, and open a discussion for direct support.
organization string | model string | question_set string | forecast_due_date string | forecasts dict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Temperature continues to rise YOY",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PnBEoonCrb"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": null,
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PiIgce1WZv"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Guess ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pg4x84spDg"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.35000000000000003,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "No",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PaGFOBQToE"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "const tendence ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PayAz1KT3U"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": null,
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PW0VYLvqR2"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Current Context: 2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record, setting a high baseline for 2024.\nClimate Trends: Global temperatures have been rising steadily due to climate change. Each successive year has often been warmer... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.85,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "I asked different AI sites to check it for me. The values were around 75-90%, so my final guess is 85 (kind of calculating the mean value)",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P0cqhfbNUQ"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Current Trends:\n\n2023 is trending to be one of the hottest years on record, reflecting an ongoing trend of increasing global temperatures. This suggests that the baseline for comparison is already high.\n\nLong-Te... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "yes if not by big margin then it will be slightly so",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PabsMfnQ9v"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.6000000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Yearly averages are increasing over time, but fluctuations happen.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PXN0L1zQMG"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "After studying the graph and how the temperature keeps\nIncreasing every now and then ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PnAHpqGDzg"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Practically, record after record is being broken, so I believe that it will grow as much as possible and more records will be broken. This is what great scientists and charts say\n\n",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manif... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "I searched on google \"\" Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?\"\" and the first article gave me the answer",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PBHJ50jxgb"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "climate change",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PD5I4DAKtj"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Temperatures are only going up",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PqnrDTs28Y"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.78,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The years have been getting hotter on average and have been reaching higher peaks what could mean that this year will be no different",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PIFDQJ1BDZ"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "As much as the world is still trying to minimize the GHGs emissions, the emissions are still taking place and the damage caused by this gasses is not getting reversed it is still in action and at the moment the 2024 is warmer.",
"... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Due to global warming temperatures increase over time so I believe the average temperature will increase as well.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PuKW1mfh9O"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.76,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Based off other forecasts, there is a possibility that 2024 will be hotter than 2023",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P9U2aRtEPb"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9500000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Global warming is real and, even if little by little, the average temperature is getting higher",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PSjCMieLoN"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Review historical temperature trends to understand the likelihood of consecutive years setting new temperature records. Assess the current year (2023) and its temperature trends. Utilize climate models and forecasts to predict gl... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "I used the information given to me and the information from the URL",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PfzjHT9UiB"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "global warming, heat wave in India",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PJiwi3veDG"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.85,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Yes it probably will. Based on the data, it's basically increasing every year",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PHsg990BT4"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Global warming has been getting more intense, the temperatures have been rising therefore i predict it will keep getting worse the 20% remaining are the hopes that we can somehow fix the environment abit by being more sustainable.... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "yes history shows that its possible for it to exceed 2023 temperature",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P4MQPb8boD"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Climate change will increase the temperature and half of the year is already recorded",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PJxMgQLXeA"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.65,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": null,
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PrwH2RnbOq"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Given the historical data, the influence of the current El Niño, and the scientific consensus on the continuing warming trend, the probability that the average global temperature in 2024 will exceed that of 2023 appears to be hig... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "yes the temperature will get hotter",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P6CWceYfcO"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The past few years have each been the hottest year on record.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pab6XRq4eQ"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "It is as sure as tommorows sunrise",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Piutrt4JEq"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Reduction in sulfate shipping emissions causing significant warming.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pk2cK8tGsz"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "As average global temperatures are increasing I believe there is a high chance of 2024 exceeding 2023.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "ParZdtQhSK"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Zeke estimates a 95% chance of 2024 being warmest year ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PVupgFT65b"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9500000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Absolutely, global warming is an out of control problem that we cannot really handle.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P0ljpFQFe6"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "while the temperatures in 2023 were recorded as the highest, the information we know of climate change suggests that the tempertures in 2024 could be slightly higher",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.76,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months and indeed as averaged over the most rece... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7566,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "based of numbers obtained from the manifold markets website ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P8ao0EWe9a"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Average global temperature has been increasing yearly, it's very likely to continue to do so.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PTvhunsPQl"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7566,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "This question is an attention check, i presume.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PRIJpDdE8F"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Step 1: I examined the trends in global temperatures over the past few decades, which appeared to be rising due to human-induced climate change.\nStep 2: Analyze the data from climate prediction models which predict... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7567,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Last recorded value: 75.66%",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PPQgVGYgdO"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "We already had record start this year so there is decent chance that average global temperature will be higher then record breaking 2023",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PYbM1yhJbx"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The preventive measures against global warming might be full in motion, but they do not reduce the damage already done to our natural defences against radiation. We see a continual increase in temperatures even without confirming ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The average global temperature in 2024 is expected to be higher than in 2023 due to ongoing trends related to climate change. According to recent data and climate models, the Earth has been experiencing a general warming trend, dr... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The data says 75%",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P9f7HXZvRU"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "I went throught the internet and UN reports, also as a climate change student I am aware of the warming.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PzC4E37cgY"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "This is solely based on personal experience, but due to climate change, each year seems so be warmer and colder than the previous one, so based on that temperature in 2024 will overall exceed the temperatures of 2023",
"resoluti... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "The topic of global warming is buzzing, and \"\"Data so far for 2024 shows record-breaking temperatures. For example, June 2024 was the warmest June on record according to NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (.g... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD",
"reasoning": "Apart from manifold, the data agrees. There's the chance of a very cold autumn, but I think it's unlikely.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PejmlbjBtB"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "The paris mayor swam in the seine to prove it is safe, but high levels of e coli are still present and i believe the olympic committee will be more cautious.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PbZAVaB... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "It's an increase and maybe an decrease ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PFKcpXzkIR"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.2,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "The Olympic committee typically wants to ensure a fair competition, if the water causes an issue it is unsafe and can cause unfair advantages/disadvantages for the competitors. The water quality appears to be trending in a better ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.55,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Best guess",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PFXe6kW9Yt"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.4,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Chance for that isn't that high for me",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PayAz1KT3U"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.65,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "My guess considers ongoing concerns about water quality and riots taking place because of that, historical precedents and current market sentiment.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P3MtAVWlMk"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.36,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "i clicked on this link https://manifold.markets/Pob/will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol and found that the chance was 36%",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PuK49cX1tx"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "[redacted to maintain anonymity]",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P0PyN8Npd5"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.25,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "I recently saw a news article about the mayor of Paris swimming in the Seine. That makes it probable to me the events will take in the Seine ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pj400dfYDw"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "The Seine River has historically faced issues with water pollution. Recent events, such as the scrapping of Seine River events and pollution affecting the triathlon, highlight ongoing concerns about the river's wate... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.99,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "that water has been polluted for years, specially these past years that global warming has been worse, they have been trying to clean that water but that's something that would take years, you just have to see the color of the wa... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.30000000000000004,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Historical Water Quality Issues: The Seine River has experienced pollution issues in the past. Efforts to improve water quality are underway, but the effectiveness and timeliness of these measures are crucial.\n\nO... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "according to recent cbc articles, \"\"the water has tested unsafe for humans in recent weeks, though cleaner on other days.\"\" it's unclear whether short term effort to clean the water or maintain water quality will last through ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "It's most likely that it won't happen. I’m reading that the Seine has been dramatically cleaned and is ready for the games",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "POHpWhNxIN"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.65,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Since concerns of the Seine River water quality intensified there is a significant possibility that some events may be postponed or relocated due to water quality issues despite the contingency plan. The current value of 64.59% r... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "No, weather is always good on olympic games.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P9RtHBFzky"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.6000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "based on that the seine river was polluted and 1st action in that case was to postpone",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PlFGmw28Wd"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "improve water on the river",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PK0r1WWz9X"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.30000000000000004,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "people are talking but it seems like they sent in the right people to say that the water is fine so that everything can move forward",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PZjcrvKBXP"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.45,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "the numbers spiked and then declined sharply, suggesting that there has been a cleanup of the river and that it should now be safe to host the events. - research has confirmed this as the mayor of paris was seen swimming in the s... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "It is a very weather-dependent decision, under normal weather conditions the water is considered acceptable, with a lot of rain the risk of unacceptable pollution increases",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"u... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "I looked at the condition mention and looked at what previously happened where I found out that it was canceled last year And now I looked and the progress of the preparation they are shoving that they will not be postponed ",
... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Understand past issues with the Seine's water quality and its impact on events. Evaluate recent news and developments related to the Seine's water quality and its impact on the Olympics. The last recorded value in t... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Pollution is one of the biggest environmental threats and not fixed the Olympic Games will be postponed ",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PdD5CFkHA3"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "the graph is deteriorating currently there is a 39% chance that it might get cancelled or postponed",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PomKpW4Vu6"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.85,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "From the boycotts i have been seeing on social media and the efforts at which people are trying to stop the Seine from being clean, I do not believe it will be completely clean by the time of the Olympics ",
"resolution_date": ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "although the tests of the water are coming back negative, france cant risk the negative news caused by any of the athletes being sick. they even chose an alternative venue",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"u... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.65,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Background Assessment: The Paris 2024 Olympics plans to use the Seine River for some events, such as the triathlon. Recent reports have highlighted concerns about the water quality of the Seine, with pollution issues affecting pr... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.75,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Warmer temperatures this summer will lead to increasing E.coli levels in the Seine making it very likely that events will be affected.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PtnNFXBfeo"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.37,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "there will be a possibilty that the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled if water quality is not up to standards but its most likely to go forward",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "P... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "It might be canceled since the water isn't up to standard.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pv0SbFy9oy"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.8,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Apparently people in Paris have been polluting the Seine because they had heard that President Macron was to be swimming in it. Though I'm not sure how much of this is a hoax, pollution is a major problem especially right now, and... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "They have been doing publicity stunts like the mayor swimming in the water. Plus there were issues with the water in Rio many years ago but I do not recall any delays. The Olympics are a huge financial windfall and money drives ev... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.67,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Yes",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PrSyHq85qx"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.35000000000000003,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "I dont know but following the news report and what others are saying",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pf2crs56WC"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "The Seine River in Paris has historically faced challenges with water quality due to pollution, which can impact activities like aquatic sports during major events such as the Olympic Games.\nReports and articles su... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.5,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Water quality problems in thje Seine River have causeed the cancellation of some events, like the triathlon. The Paris 2024 committee is trying to clean up the river to meet Olymipic standards. In the past, such prolbmes have led ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.65,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Historical Water Quality Issues: Past events in the Seine have been canceled or postponed due to poor water quality, indicating a recurring problem.\nParis Olympics Promises: Despite promises to clean up the Seine, recent reports... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.6000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Based of the reports from Paris's major and region offices, open water events might have to be posted due the water not meeting standards.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PqYelVLny... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "I do not think that they will be canceled or postponed as a few days ago, I saw a news article saying that the water quality is improving. Also, there is too much money on the line to postpone or cancel. ",
"resolution_date": null... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.37,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Water is said to clean by some but also unsafe due to ecoli levels which may push for a delay in events",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "PmXHXRAw3l"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.30000000000000004,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "No because the weather is not so bad",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pg1Q5L9AdP"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.2,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "This probability is based on potential water quality issues and their impact on outdoor events planned on the Seine. Given the significance of the Seine for the Games and historical challenges with water quality, there is a modera... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.4,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "it is a lot of work to clean the river",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",
"user_id": "Pn5aqE6vgS"
} |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.9,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "I firstly took a look at the given url stating the predictions for the event to come true. I saw that it sits at 37%\nThen, I did a google search for the water quality in Seine. I found out that the water was decribed as filthy.\n... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.6000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "Rationale:\n\n▪︎Understanding the Context: I reviewed the issue with the Seine River's water quality and its impact on the Paris 2024 Olympics. The river has faced pollution problems, which could disrupt events plan... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.7000000000000001,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "In 2019, triathlon events in the Seine were canceled due to water pollution, raising concerns about the Olympics. Although organizers promised to clean the river for the Games, pollution concerns persist. With less ... |
ForecastBench | Public forecasts | 2024-07-21-human.json | 2024-07-21 | {
"direction": null,
"forecast": 0.1,
"id": "KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh",
"reasoning": "No based on the presidents comments and what qualify and the money that has been spent for the events, my steps is i went through the media briefing on line about water quality.",
"resolution_date": null,
"source": "manifold",... |
End of preview.
ForecastBench Datasets
This repository contains the datasets produced by ForecastBench, a forecasting benchmark for LLMs.
More info at https://www.forecastbench.org.
Code available at https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench.
License
The datasets in this repository are distributed under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.
Citation
@inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
year={2025},
booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
}
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